Levi Salmans | Orlando Horse Properties

I have no idea if this is true. Once I heard that domestic turkeys have drowned in rain storms by staring up at the sky with their mouths open.

Yesterday I had a buyer staring at the sky with his mouth open. I found him the perfect property. It meets all of his requirements.  Now he won’t sign the contract. He’s thrown out every imaginable reason why he can’t buy the home. I’m not surprised he’s done this twice before.

Twenty years of selling real estate I’ve seen it before. Sometimes people have valid reasons for delaying other people are victims – victims of their own actions.

There’s a husband and wife that I’ve worked with over the years. They are the best decision makers I’ve ever met. They look at the big picture, pull out the important elements and are decisive in their decision.

Other people freeze. They drown in a rain storm of imagined problems. I like this guy; he’s a good guy, strong family man with a good sense of humor. It’s frustrating. By not trusting his decisions, he holding himself back and holding back his family. I can’t find a way to get him out of his rain storm.

How low will house prices go? That’s a question I was asked yesterday. My answer, I don’t know. We won’t know we’ve hit bottom until we’ve bounced off it. Consider this, the harder the fall the bigger the bounce.

In Orlando home prices soared to unnatural highs. We saw appreciation ranging between 20% to 30% in 2005 and 2006. It’s early 2009 and we’re seeing homes selling for half of what they sold for new in 2006.

Think of the pendulum analogy. It swung too far one way, is it swinging too far in the other direction? Where is center?

Let’s reset back to the year 2000. I sold a house for 180,000. Historically we can expect real estate to appreciate 3.5% annually. By 2009 this home should be selling for $245,000 (3.5% compounded annually). Here’s the reality. Larger homes on better lots in the neighborhood aren’t selling at $224,000. My estimation is the home would sale closer to a 2003 price of $199,500. Since the owners have made a lot of improvements and the condition is outstanding it might fetch a 2004 price of $206,500.

It appears the pendulum has swung too far, the market is over compensating. Orlando homes are under valued – buyers are getting bargains at yesterday’s prices. History tells us those prices will come back.

Yes, home prices will bounce back. When and how fast? Does it matter? If you buy a house today and live in it for 6 years does it matter if the prices bounce back in two years, three years, four years or five years? Will this housing crisis be behind us in four years? I’m certain today’s buyers are going to make money tomorrow. Will it be you?